Preparing for the Next Bull Run 🌋
Preparing for the Next Bull Run 🌋
Its very unlikely to start anytime soon. But lets get ready like it could!
Scroll to the bottom for the “Action Items” that recap this article.
Listen folks.
2023 is off to a hot start in the crypto space.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are up 25% in the last two weeks
January is set to be the biggest month of NFT trading since August.
Bored Apes are launching a new campaign today
Many would have you believe that this is the start of the next bull run. That ETH will hit $10k within months, and that every new NFT is the next Bored Apes.
But I’m sorry to report that we are years away from that. The factors that got crypto in this rut (the macro, the scams) are nowhere near reversed. A recession is imminent.
It’s my belief that 2023 will be a transitory year for traders and passive collectors in the NFT market, not a raging bull market like we saw in 2021.
There will be lucrative memes. There will be rugs. There will be scandals.
This will be a year where the well-funded companies continue building and shipping their products, while a trickle of crypto-curious newbs slowly make their way in.
Many signs point to mid-late 2024/2025 as the next resurgence. By then the economy will have recovered (rates hikes will stop), and the next Bitcoin halving will take place, thus drawing the true bulls and hedge funds back into the market.
Either way, now is the time to prepare for the next Bull Run.
Many companies, protocols, and collections have shifted their roadmaps to a more generous and relaxed schedule. They won’t launch until the time is right, which may be 18+ months away.
In today’s newsletter, we’ll go over how to be ready for the inevitable run, whether you’re just looking to stay safe, have fun, or maximize opportunity.
And before we start, reminder that none of this is financial advice. Please make your own decisions! Do not follow anything that’s said in this newsletter or from The First Mint.
1. Set Your Goals For The Bear 🎯
Remember this: the only rule of crypto is that it will go up and it will go down.
Having strong yet very simple goals is how you can stay focused and ignore FOMO-driven purchases and FUD-driven panics.
If you believe that there will be greener days again (like I do), but that they aren’t coming anytime soon (also like me), then your goals must reflect that belief.
My personal goals, today and for the next few quarters are:
Survive
Be Patient
Be Ready
Accumulate
Stay cool. Don’t lose your shirt. And wait.
Everything else that happens is just white noise.
2. Prepare for Token Airdrops 🪂
The bull market had some of the most outrageous token airdrops I’ve ever seen.
ENS Domains. Uniswap. 1Inch. Dapp Radar. The list goes on!
On the NFT side, many project followed the same model; Bored Apes launched ApeCoin (which still sits at #33 on CoinGecko) and Axie Infinity with AXS (#50).
We also saw protocols literally launch with a token airdrop like LooksRare and the more recent Blur.io.
The common ingredient for receiving these airdrops?
Participation.
Using the platform, buying an NFT, making a trade, voting, staking, collecting, etc.
The most active users who held the most assets are the ones who were rewarded handsomely with these sweet tokens.
Token airdrops are an incredibly efficient way to reward VCs, early adopters, and let many leaders “exit” the decision making.
Its a brilliant way to skirt an IPO - just give it away for free, and give yourself and the team tons of it.
And I bet there are dozens of large crypto companies simply waiting for the next bull market to drop their token.
Places to look for token airdrops:
Wallet Apps (Zapper, Zerion, Floor App)
Other NFT Marketplaces (Magic Eden, OpenSea)
Card Collecting Platforms (Dapper, Sorare)
Brand IPs that have NFT products (Panini, Seussibles)
Layer 2 Protocols & Apps (Basically all apps on Optimism, Algorand, or Immutable that don’t have tokens)
We also know that potentially the largest airdrop in history is coming, should Metamask ever launch its long awaited token.
Keen for a deeper dive? Check out my 14-month old thread, with many lessons that still apply today, on how to maximize for the next airdrop
3. Lock Down Security + Wallet Organization 🔐
Tell me if you’ve heard this sentence before, or if its something that even YOU have said out loud or on Discord.
I have a ledger, I just haven’t had time to set it up yet.
Hacks happen. Literally all the time and even to self-proclaimed Gods.
Your goal, and my goal, to the absolute best of our abilities, is to take every measure possible to not get hacked.
Every NFT collector needs:
A hot wallet (just for mints)
A ledger, if not TWO
A password manager (not a password.txt file)
A incredibly secure internet connection
A keen sense of doubt in every link you ever click anywhere on the web.
Almost as important as all of those: you should have someone in your life, like your spouse, parent, child, or bff, who knows how to access all of your crypto. Just in case you get injured or who knows what.
On the security front, here is a good starting point for understanding how to properly protect your devices from hacks:
4. Invest in Token-Less Communities 🏫
Its so cliché, but its true: Net worth = Network
And I’m sorry to tell you this: but your main Discord community should NOT be based on your largest bags.
Crypto is already a big echo chamber and nothing increases your delusions like staying siloed in a bias community.
Yes, many NFT projects have cultivated a great spot to hang out, but inevitably the direction of that community will focus on the project’s development: not yours.
Look for communities that focus on adding value through collective, and where the token or NFT is simply for access.
I asked Twitter to dish the goods on where they like to hangout. Check the comments for some sweet ones.
And remember: the larger the brand, the bigger the corporate interest.
No way around that in NFTs.
5. Become a Student 📚
When I started in NFTs, I was honestly confused AF.
It took me months just to wrap my head around where NFT images are hosted. And I still don’t really get it! But I’m trying.
Early on, I initially just stuck to “simple” projects. But I also carved out time every week to force myself to learn about stuff I didn’t really understand.
This enabled me to be an early adopter in projects like ENS Domains, The Sandbox, and Axie Infinity.
But still - I could have been more curious.
I wish I’d made an effort to learn about Art Blocks, Parallel Alpha, Clone X, Loot and Nouns. But I didn’t. I was too focused in my comfort zone.
And that’s why I’ve spent the last few months learning about Music NFTs and web3 Social Networks.
Will it net me anything? No idea!
But only by learning as a habit will I have a chance to catch what’s hot next time.
My areas of interest right now:
Social Tokens
Music NFTs
web3 Social Media
web3 Gaming
AI-generated Art
Anywhere else I should look? Let me know!
6. Read Material From Good People 🧠
I don’t mean terrible NFT shills, engagement-farming influencers, or those YouTube videos titled “How To Use The 2023 Recession To Get Rich”.
I mean people who will give it to you straight, challenge the common assumptions, and have few vested corporate interests.
Every morning I spend about an hour or two reading a broad range of viewpoints, news sources, and community feeds.
That includes:
20-25x Bookmarked Tabs to crypto news, portfolio, tickers, etc.
10-12x Newsletters from excellent storytellers
3-5x Twitter Lists of Crypto Projections, NFT Insight, etc.
3-5x Discord Channels in Communities I really trust
Does this yield a life changing alpha on the daily? Of course not.
But it keeps my finger on the pulse of what’s happening in the space, and provides diverse viewpoints on the major issues of the day.
At the end of each month, I fine tune these lists and add new sources.
What The Community Had To Say 🗣️
I asked the Twitter faithful their thoughts on how to prep for the bull run.
My fave answers:
Here’s the recap:
Goals: Write down 3x things you want to achieve during the bear
Airdrops: Head to your favorite Layer 2 and try some apps/marketplaces
Security: Clean your computer, set up Ledger, get Password Manager
Community: Ask friends for their fave Discord community.
Student: Start consuming content like your life depends on it
Follows: Ask friends for good newsletters and podcasts about the space
Naturally, this is a great spot to plug TFM, so here are some recent podcasts from some super smart people.
And also link to my personal list of “Crypto Projections”, which I read through every morning to get a sense of where the broader crypto market is heading.
Thanks for reading!
**This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter, podcast, or publication should be considered financial or trading advice of any kind. Please do your own thorough research and make your own trading decisions. This is not advice.”
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