The Buyer's Guide to NBA NFTs 🛍️
The Buyer's Guide to NBA NFTs 🛍️
It's mid-season in the NBA, and not a bad time to make some moves on the NFT front. So who are the best players to pick up on Sorare and Top Shot? Let's dive in.
Welcome to the Buyer’s Guide to NBA NFTs, Mid Season Edition! In this piece, we’ll look at what’s available on the market in the major NBA projects, and evaluate what moves the platform may make that will shift the markets.
Sidenote: We’ll be on Spaces today at 2:00PM ET with Bleacher Report. More info below!
It’s a weird time of year for the NBA.
The trade deadline is looming.
Football isn’t over quite yet.
The All-Stars have been announced, but the game is still 3x weeks away.
Most teams have 30 games of basketball left to play, and half of them are wondering if they’ve got what it takes to go all the way or just make it out of the play-in.
In the NFT world, we still love blockchain and basketball. But despite a resurgence in the market throughout January, very little of that added volume has been in our corner of the industry.
But that doesn’t mean there isn’t some fun to be had.
In today’s edition, we’re going to look at the best moves to make on both Top Shot and Sorare, based on what we know from the platforms and also what’s happening in The Association.
Consider this a Buyer’s Guide, or a list of moves you could make now or in the next few weeks and months of the 2022-23 season. For each platform, we’ll scope out What To Look For and also What To Avoid.
And before we start, reminder that none of this is financial advice. Please make your own decisions! Do not follow anything that’s said in this newsletter or from The First Mint.
Sorare
Sorare is a fantasy platform where the price directly reflects not just the performance on the court, but the potential for above average performance.
Thus, we can look to it as a predictive game and try to anticipate what players will gain playing time and which stars will outperform their quotas. We can also think of where money will move as the season hits the 3/4 mark and begins to wind down.
The team at Sorare has managed to keep supply under control. But, it’s their first season of NBA, and they are still figuring out the kinks. So take the insight below with a grain of salt, as Sorare could drastically change the rulebook for Series 2 (although unlikely).
What To Look For
Note: all prices below are for the “Limited” Cards.
Playoff-Bound Role Players
Think back to deep playoff runs: there are always a few guys that come off the bench to fill holes or injuries and become a hero (see Matthew Dellavedova). Look for guys who could eat up minutes playing backup for a star, or in the early blowout playoff rounds.
Look for really cheap long shot veterans (Blake Griffin) that cost almost nothing but could be valuable to a team expected to go deep in the playoffs (like the Celtics)
Blake Griffin | $2.74
Joe Harris | $7.30
Victor Oladipo | $10.19
Also ook at players that have plugged in well during injuries in the regular season, and could see minutes reduced as the season winds down (good buying opp).
Vlatko Cancar | $3.50
Damion Lee | $5.78
Donte DiVincenzo | $12.78
Bones Hyland | $19.02
Rookie Minute Eaters
As teams get ready to tank for Victor, they will likely hand off major minutes to their up and coming stars. This is already happening on lottery-bound teams like the Spurs and Rockets, and soon we may see the Blazers, Raptors, and Bulls join that list.
The trade deadline may accelerate that trend, as guys like Gordon Hayward and Bojan Bogdanovic get (potentially) shipped off in return for picks.
Young players to look for, who may get more minutes or more time on the ball down the stretch:
Christian Koloko | $4.26
Ayo Dosunmu | $11.56
Austin Reaves | $11.72
The Top 10 Players in the NBA
Many people hesitate to pick up a huge star because its a big investment - but they are most likely to hold value! And they are the best bet to have HUGE weeks in the 70-90 point range.
If you need a boost and are licking your chops at playoff tournaments, then look for the young studs. Many of them have held their value incredibly well through the season, and are likely to hold price through to next year and beyond (especially being from Series 1).
Jayson Tatum | $178
Joel Embiid | $199
Giannis Antetokounmpo | $252
Luka Doncic | $463
What To Avoid
Non-playoff bound stars
Think top 30-40 players in the league, and think guys who are excellent perennial all star candidates but that will not be sniffing playoff action this year.
They will have no utility in the playoffs and their Limited + Rare cards could come at a discount as the season winds down.
DeMar DeRozan | $26.17
Pascal Siakam | $62.99
Damian Lillard | $72.27
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | $97.68
Potential Trade Targets
Although its a positive for a player to move from a non-playoff team to a contender, it may also limit their minutes as they become a complimentary piece.
Bojan Bogdanovic | $12.48
OG Anunoby | $21.61
John Collins | $23.58
FOMO into the playoffs
Although we don’t yet know how Sorare x NBA will handle its first post-season, we can definitely try to predict the market’s behavior.
Although auctions will largely end, will collectors dump their supply? There were some small dips post-World Series on the MLB side, so it could happen on the NBA side to the non-star non-rookie class of players.
So even if the playoff tournaments look juicy, keep in mind that volume may fall off in June/July and value could plummet on the middle class of NBA players.
Saying this one more time - none of this is financial advice. Please make your own decisions! Do not follow anything that’s said in this newsletter or from The First Mint.
NBA Top Shot
TS has done a good job this season of holdings its market cap - however, its come at the expense of many Series 1 + Series 2 moments, as millions of new supply has been introduced in the two months.
TS has also popularized “locking”, which will keep many moments off the market for a full 365 days, and the first wave of which expires this July/August. So in the short term, the market is safe from the locking tsunami.
And this is a good time to remind ourselves that Top Shot is a collectibles platform, and that a good purchase is something that either holds sentimental value or can appreciate over a long period of time.
In this guide, I’m not taking into account moments that offer non-game utility (such as winning tickets); rather I’m looking at in-game utility (such as getting more NFTs and badges).
What To Look For
Good to Great Rookies
As Top Shot grows and add millions of new moments each year (or doesn’t, you never know!) its best to look at the traditional card world as an indicator for what holds value. And that’s rookies - in particular, rookie debuts.
This season has had a solid youth movement, and I’ve personally enjoyed picking up many of the young and budding players. I’ve also noticed that the floor on Series 2 + 3 rookies has held relatively steady for a few months.
I’m targeting the players who are getting tons of minutes and look like they will be starters for years to come. Note: these are all 4-badge debut prices.
Jabari Smith Jr | $23
Keegan Murray | $37
Benedict Mathurin | $47
Paolo Banchro | $101
Award Candidates
Top Shot hinted at player-specific leaderboards, and that players who win awards would see their leaderboards rewarded. Lets hope this fulfill this promise!
Although some of the obvious leaderboards (Jokic) are potentially out of reach for the average collector, there are a few other awards that will go to average and attainable players.
Jaren Jackson (DPOY) | Rares $36-189
Nic Claxton (DPOY) | Rares $66 (he only has 6x moments)
Lauri Markkanen (Most Improved) | Rares $63-69
Russell Westbrook (Sixth Man) | Rares $32-279
What To Avoid
Series 1 Moments
S1 has struggled the last few months, as some OGs and whales have departed the platform. The first season had sporadic supply, as they were minted well before TS had the masses it acquired in the winter of 2021.
Although there was once a narrative that “Bubble” moments would be unique, its something we haven’t heard in a while. And with an uncertain supply of future moments in Series 5, and potentially many more Rare + Legendaries of top stars in Series 4, its difficult to trust these values right now.
All Series 1 Rare Sets
All non-debut Moments
Stacking for playoffs
Although TS likes to keep us guessing on challenges and game mechanics, one thing they have done consistently over the last 2 seasons is oversupply at playoff time.
They may drop common moments galore for all players and teams that make the playoffs, and then also drop a Rare set for both the Finals and Conference Finals.
This could dilute the value of the super stars, who by this point will already have an extra legendary and rare to go with it from the Series 4. And who knows, maybe they’ll all even get a few All Star moments.
So despite it being likely that playoff-bound players are utilized in playoff challenges, it’s also possible those challenge will require the NEW moments that come out.
Be Wise!
Again, none of this is financial advice. But also, we’re in transition between sports seasons right now, which is a tricky time for attention.
Will more people jump to NBA NFTs now that the NFL is done? Will March Madness come out with NFTs that steal the show? Or will Sorare’s MLB gain steam…
Time will tell. But the bear ain’t over, and nothing is guaranteed. So remember to stay within your limits and not take any of this too seriously.
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**This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter, podcast, or publication should be considered financial or trading advice of any kind. Please do your own thorough research and make your own trading decisions. This is not advice.”
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