🎙️Top Shot Playoff Sleeper Picks
A new podcast about hockey, Top Shot redemptions, Sorare's blown 3-1 lead, and a broken curse.
What’s up everybody, it’s LG Doucet here.
Straight to the point - a week ago, we thought Jimmy Butler was a good purchase on Top Shot for $3. He’s now at $19.
And days before that, I had been scooping Steph Curry up at $9 - he’s now $35.
All this thanks to Top Shot’s new redemption campaign, where playoff Moments have a limited supply and can be traded in for each round.
It’s the best gamification Top Shot has ever created. Better maybe even than the NFL ALL DAY playbook.
Plus - it just works.
Fans, collectors, and degens get to speculate on which players will survive, which leads to either intense jubilation (Butler for $3) or crushing financial heartbreak (Giannis).
And like anybody who gets lucky once, we at The First Mint now see ourselves as the ultimate savants when it comes to predicting the next pump.
So here are our picks for underpriced Redemptions - and this is absolutely NOT financial advice. Please make your own decisions. This is just my opinion. Don’t do this. Unless it’s entirely your own idea.
First, a look at the top of the chart, for context:
And now the sleeper picks:
Kevin Durant | $14
KD is valued way lower than at $40 and Steph at $35. Yet, he is considered a similar caliber player, and the Suns have better odds for the title than the Lakers. What giveS?
The market clearly thinks Denver is kind of for real, and losing one game has it totally spooked on KD. Losing a second one? Expect a race to the bottom on KD.
But in that series of Denver/Phoenix, only two starting players have won championships - KCP (Lakers 2020 bubble) and Durant (Warriors, 2017, 2018).
Its not insane to think KD could lead Phoenix in a comeback against Denver - after all, thats what they traded for!
Joel Embiid | $11
Embiid is out for Game 1, and the Celtics are favorites. Damn! But hey, nothing is guaranteed, and the Celtics showed some vulnerability against the Hawks in round 1.
Could this be the 76ers year? Unlikely, but I’m giving market predictions here, not championship picks.
Embiid is low right now (around $10-11), and should the 76ers win Game 1 without him, or hold any other “commanding” style lead in the series, his Moment could easily pump.
And yes - I’m aware of the rumors that his injury might be serious and he may not return at all.
Jalen Brunson | $8
The East is kind of wide open? The Celtics and 76ers could beat each other up, and the other semi-final is Knicks/Heat.
Plus, the Heat are injured (Butler, Herro), and the Knicks could easily have a better game than they did in game 1.
Brunson is just $8. He was $7 earlier! Of all remaining teams, they are the cheapest moments.
Plus, Knicks fans are passionate and dramatic - so even a series lead could drive the market to overreact. Keep an eye out!
All these picks and more on today’s podcast…
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🎙️211 - Top Shot Strategy, NHL Reactions, NBA Predictions, and a Broken Curse
Guarantee this is the most hockey talk you will ever listen to, thanks to the Toronto Maple Leafs winning their first playoff series in 19 years!
So that takes up the first hour, as Phil reveals the antics from Saturday’s celebrations, before we then dovetail into NBA Top Shot Redemption strategy, Sorare overview, NHL Breakaway wish list, and the hot take of the week.
On today’s podcast:
02:45 - Why do people hate Drake?
07:00 - Most insane weekend in sports
12:00 - The Maple Leafs broke the curse
21:00 - Tales from downtown Toronto rampage
30:00 - What its like to be tortured hockey fans
44:00 - NHL Breakaway news
52:00 - NHL wish list for the NFT project
1:02:00 - NBA: the Warriors survived
1:09:00 - Top shot Redemption Strategy
1:27:00 - The picks on Redemption moments
1:35:00 - What’s wrong with Top Shot
1:43:00 - Sorare blowing a 3-1 lead on NBA
1:53:00 - Hot Take of the Week
🔥Hot Take of the Week
With many upsets and shockers in the books for the NBA, it was only right to poll the audience on who might actually win this thing!
And the winner, per Phil’s preference!
🥊 May 2 | UFC Strike “STANDOUTS”
Cost: $69 / 8 Moments
Supply: 4,250 Packs
Time: 11AM PT
Thoughts: 1% chance of pulling a Conor McGregor Champion moment (nice), and a 20% chance of an Adesanya moment. Not bad!
⚾ Today | Candy Plays of The Week
Cost: $20 per pack (2 NFTs)
Supply: 848 packs
Time: Already happened!
Thoughts: These are ongoing every week of the season, and will be used in Candy code breaker challenges.
There does not seem to be any drops this week, as both the AFL and FIFA have sold out their latest pack drops (lol what).
I would assume Top Shot is about to drop more TS 50 or one of the many sets from S4 that haven’t come out yet. We’ll see!
We got monthly data for April 2023 here.
Major takeaways:
Sorare leads the chart, but the # includes primary sales
Dapper collections all slowed down in April
Candy with a good boost to start MLB Season
And the Buyer data for April, which is actually not that bad all things considered!
10k+ on NBA Top Shot is…good? I think? Its definitely up from the previous month.
Legit question: is TFM becoming a nostalgia video game channel?
Feels that way 👀
I had to double take on this screenshot before posting.
And we end it with a Redemption challenge of our own:
**This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter, podcast, or publication should be considered financial or trading advice of any kind. Please do your own thorough research and make your own trading decisions. This is not advice.”
About The First Mint
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