My Long Term Holds 💎
After watching my portfolio drop 80%, it was time to sell. Here is what made the cut.
At this point in crypto winter, you know what’s up.
NFTs are down bad.
Many have fallen 80-90% from their all time high.
And through every round of scandals and downtrend, NFT prices have been hammered more and more.
Not a single NFT collection has the luxury of being a more “stable” and “long term” asset like ETH and BTC. None have that history. There’s no guarantee that our are bags are gmi.
And since the 3rd week of May, I’ve been selling as much of my collection as I can possibly stomach. It has not been easy.
I’ve had to force myself into hard decisions. I made a spreadsheet, made rules on what was important, and proceeded to liquidate. Slowly but surely, every month.
And now I’m left with a little cast of survivors.
Adrift at sea, happy to be alive, but occasionally wondering who is next to walk the proverbial plank.
Now of course, I’m very happy to hold every single one. But I can’t guarantee that the selling is over, as the last 8 months of liquidating have turned me into a emotionless beast.
So to stay organized and sober, I split my holdings into four different tiers:
TIER 1: Personal Bluechips ~ The project has a long term trajectory, and I’m holding what I consider to be a valuable piece of that.
TIER 2: The Utility Play ~ The project either gives me access to membership, allow lists, or gamification. There is a constant drip of action.
TIER 3: Here For The Vibes ~ Good projects but with even better communities. I have faith in the community to push this project beyond its current ceiling. Could be sold into a pump, but could also be convinced to buy more.
TIER 4: Hoping For Breakout ~ Items I’m unsure about, but I’m holding because I think they can pull through. Only two on the list here.
And that left me with 21x different notable collections held.
**CAUTION: Before we continue, I want to stress that NONE of this is financial advice. Please make your own decisions. Nothing in this newsletter or on The First Mint should be considered advice of any kind.
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💎 My Long Term Holds
As promised, here are my 21x holds, split into categories.
TIER 1: Personal Bluechips
The project has a long term trajectory, and I’m holding what I consider to be a valuable piece of that.
NBA Top Shot Rare Series 1 Finals
People thought I was nuts when I said that the bubble would be LeBron’s final appearance in the NBA Finals. But that’s looking more and more correct by the day.
I’ve sold a lot of top shot stuff, but to me this set holds a very unique place. Bubble Finals. LeBron win. Series 1. Rare. And only 357 potential completions.
Over time, I think this will be one of the most unique sets in the ecosystem.
NFL ALL DAY Series 1 Debuts
The jury is still out on ALL DAY. They had a great start to the season, and despite a slow trickle down starting around week 5, it isn’t yet all said and done.
The AD team will find new levers of growth, and in the end, I think many Debuts will stand above. Namely, the Tom Brady, which is down about 75% from when I bought.
Mutant Ape Yacht Club
Don’t bet against the Apes. I learned this the hard way when I famously fudded their original release. Never again!
I hold my Mutant Ape proudly and believe in the brand, the team, and the momentum they have built. If 99% of projects go to zero, Apes will be in the 0.1% of the 1%, and I’m happy to hold a piece of that.
This project really grew on me due to its fantastic design and comic book vibes. We’ve had the creator Ben Mauro on TFM several times, and I generally get super excited just looking at it. This is a hold of love and nerdness, not of investment.
I was late to this one, but thanks to Quad I got in before it all blew up. I’ve grown to love the idea of staking my items for an entire season of community quests, which are rewarded with some of the best visuals in the space.
Plus, the brand just sold to Yuga Labs, and Beeple is part of the founding team. Hard to bet against those two!
The most obscure project on the list, but definitely one with tons of upside. Our friends at Krause House want to be the first DAO to own and operate an NBA Team, and I hold their genesis membership ticket.
TIER 2: The Utility Play
The project either gives me access to membership, allow lists, or gamification. There is a constant drip of action.
This is one of those projects that I keep because other people think its important. But also because their Allow List machine is impeccable.
Although their “nesting” rewards have only netted me a few stickers, some socks, and a fanny pack, there’s no doubt that founder Kevin Rose will continue to grind this out for at least another 2-3 years. So I’m here for whatever doors that opens up!
Sorare x NBA
I get to compete twice per week in super fun and engaging fantasy contests, and I’ve almost doubled my collection via rewards!
Plus, the team at Sorare is so polished in their comms and product deployment that its just an absolute joy to follow.
Any day now, my bright yellow neon tracksuit will arrive. Will I wear it? No idea. But I love how Adidas has approached the space, and I see this NFT as an early membership to everything that is to come.
Can you see a trend here? I like passes for the opportunity and future Allow Lists. Oliver and the team at Cameo have delivered on some really fun and creative art projects (although most are illiquid), and he is a partnership machine.
Candy Digital: Blue Jays + Unopened Packs
My home team had an incredibly disappointing exit this post season, but management wants to compete and I’m here to collect. I’m actually actively looking to grow this piece of my portfolio.
I’m also a sucker for unopened packs, of which I hold 18x in Candy.
UFC Strike: Series 0 Common Set
Similar sentiment as ALL DAY, with the added caveat that there have been occasional benefits for holding complete Series 0.
And again, there’s an argument for “genesis sets”, no matter how much floor prices suffer. So I’m here for the UFC one.
Recur is a treasure trove of IP: Nicklodeon, Paramount, and now Ninja Turtles. They’ve hit a few bumps lately as demand has fallen off, but I will continue to hold their original Pass to gain early access to all future projects.
TIER 3: Here For The Vibes
Good projects but with even better communities. I have faith in the community to push this project beyond its current ceiling. Could be sold into a pump, but could also be convinced to buy more.
Rewind a year; Ballerz are on top of the world, with a floor of $1400-1800. Although not quite as lucrative anymore, the Ballerz community is undefeated when it comes to their dedication to the project.
Plus, their parent company NFT Genius is building the largest FLOW marketplace, so its nice to have a PFP with an actual useful product in its ecosystem.
Jenkins The Valet
The only project that literally hired a “Director of Vibes”, the team at Tally hit a huge roadblock when the community rejected their Azurbala PFPs.
I like the guys, we had them on the show, and my expectations are mild. I think they have an ambitious project, and I’m happy to hold and eat popcorn while we watch them try and hit their monstrous aspirations.
This project is releasing Masters of The Universe, in partnership with Mattel. I need me some Skeletor, and their community has been super positive through a long timeline and recent drop mishaps. That’s a hold for me!
The team at Sturdy Exchange has been quiet lately, and like many others are likely trying to navigate these bearish waters. But I love the look of the Hoodlums: the art alone is a vibe based on a solid artist, and I’ll keep these around just because I think they are cool to show off.
Ok, so The Worm isn’t even liquid. But it remains one of the most creative and original projects in the space. The squad behind it gave me a few zines when we met. Zines!!! Who else is doing that!
Pirates of the Metaverse
This is a recent addition, and one that I made purely out of respect for the community’s
harassment hustle on Twitter. They wouldn’t leave me alone! And they are one of the only projects trying to do the cross chain thing, which - successful or not - is worth following.
TIER 4: Hoping For Breakout
I’m holding because I think they can pull through. Only two on the list here.
I had the “genesis” set for PV, but had to sell both the Founder’s Dao token and MintPass 1. Plus, the Founder’s pfps were not for me.
I love the comics at PV. And they have finally launched their DOTs program. They have a lot of ground to make up after a challenging summer on the comms front, but I’m down to stick around and potentially accumulate some more!!
I mentioned above that I’m gladly holding my Recur Pass (I actually hold 2x), but I’m not holding my breath on their first project, NFTU.
We promoted this on The First Mint, and the concept is still sound: Top Shot, but for college teams/athletes. Problem is, there’s been almost zero deployment for this current season, and my bags get less liquid every day.
Let’s hope they turn this one around!
📚 What I Learned From Liquidating
The last 8 months haven’t come without their deep lessons.
Watching your portfolio of made-up-internet-jpegs drop 80% was quite painful, and selling them off was even worse.
I’m a nerd at heart: I’m a sucker for great art and comic book vibes. I held onto the projects in this area. Case in point.
Once you sell, you literally never look back. It was so hard to list/accept an offer, but the memory quickly vanished.
Always be ready to change your mindset. I was so convinced of my strategy back in April (accumulate, barely sell). But now that’s changed dramatically.
My new outlook: I see the bear market as an opportunistic time, and the bull market (if it ever comes back) as a time to sell like your life depends on it. I’ve completely changed the way I operate and feel when it comes to my crypto portfolio.
Now, when number go down, I get kind of excited 🤷
Weird conditioning, I know. But maybe the best for survival.
💰 What’s In Your Bag?
I’ve shown you mine. Now it’s your turn.
What are your 3 biggest long term keepers?
Let us know with a tweet below:
**This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter, podcast, or publication should be considered financial or trading advice of any kind. Please do your own thorough research and make your own trading decisions. This is not advice.”
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